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STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 12/24
NCAA COLLEGE FOOTBALL
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
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*** HAWAII BOWL ***

TULSA (9-3) @ HAWAII (10-3)
Aloha Stadium - Honolulu, HI
Kickoff, 8:00 p.m. EDT Line: Hawaii -10.5 / O/U 73.5
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Hometown favorites are back in Aloha Stadium on Christmas Eve, as the 24th-ranked Hawaii Warriors clash with the Tulsa Golden Hurricane in the ninth annual Hawaii Bowl in Honolulu. The Warriors, who are tied into this postseason game when they become bowl eligible and don't quite make it to BCS-busting status, opened the 2010 campaign with two defeats in the first three games against USC and Colorado, but that didn't stop them from keeping their eye on the prize. Hawaii rolled off six straight wins from the end of September through October, one of those being a key 27-21 triumph over visiting Nevada in Western Athletic Conference action.

The win over the Wolf Pack was huge for the islanders as it kept hope alive for possibly capturing the WAC title, but a 42-7 loss at Boise State the first week of November meant Hawaii had to settle for a share of the crown with both the Broncos and Wolf Pack, as all three programs finished league play at 7-1. Nevertheless, even with winning three straight after the BSU setback, Hawaii was already tied into staying at home for its 10th bowl game of all-time.

"We're at a point where we're going to a bowl game, We're co-champions, we're very humble about it," says Hawaii head coach Greg McMackin about his team's accomplishments. "I think the guys have done it the right way because they've played one game at a time and we're still not finished. I'm really proud of the players and I'm really proud of the coaches. I give all credit to the coaches and the players."

As for the Golden Hurricane, they too opened the 2010 season with two defeats in three games just like Hawaii, the team bowing to East Carolina and Oklahoma State by allowing the opposition 51 and 65 points, respectively. Things cooled down a bit after that and from the middle of October on Tulsa, which at one time was a member of the Western Athletic Conference along with the Warriors, cruised with six consecutive wins to tie SMU for the top spot in the West Division of Conference USA at 6-2.

Hawaii, which lost this particular event exactly two years ago against Notre Dame by a final of 49-21, has a record of 3-2 in this bowl dating back to Christmas Day 2002. Overall, the Warriors are 5-4 in the postseason, compared to Tulsa which is 7-9 after the regular season has concluded. The Hurricane recently took part in the GMAC Bowl in January of 2009, securing a 45-13 win over Ball State. A year earlier, Tulsa crushed Bowling Green in the same bowl game by a 63-7 final. In terms of the all-time series between these two programs, Hawaii is ahead by a mark of 5-3 after capturing a 44-16 victory in the most recent meeting at home back in 2004. The Warriors have now won three of the last four decisions against Tulsa.

Once again this year, the Warriors had one of the most dominating offenses in not just the WAC but in the entire nation. The success was generally credited to quarterback Bryant Moniz who, on his way to being named Second Team All- WAC, was first in the nation in total offense with 361.9 ypg. Moniz had the passing attack ranked first in the country as he threw for at least 300 yards 10 times, tossing a total of 36 TDs, 11 of those coming in the last three outings. Senior wideout Greg Salas made it look easy for Moniz as the receiver collected 106 receptions for 1,675 yards and 12 TDs as he was named a Third Team All-American.

When opposing defenses focused too much on Salas, Kealoha Pilares stepped in to grab the spotlight with his 88 catches for 1,306 yards and another 15 TDs. Everyone knows the passing game for the Warriors is first and foremost the chosen mode of attack for coach McMackin, but late this year the unit had the luxury of leaning on running back Alex Green as well as he posted four games with at least 100 yards in the last six contests, running for a school-record 327 yards and three touchdowns in one game alone versus New Mexico State in the conference finale.

With the UH offense always grabbing the headlines, it is easy to overlook a defense that can generally hold its own. Thanks to a couple of All-WAC First Team selections in Corey Paredes and Mana Silva, this year's group had more than its share of highlights as well. With 11.1 tackles per game Paredes, who posted a team-best 144 stops overall, was 11th in the nation in that category. Paredes was also tied for second on the team with four interceptions, a category which the Warriors led the nation in with a total of 23 picks overall. Silva, second on the team with 76 tackles, was second in the nation in INTs with eight.

Trying to fight through Paredes and Silva and the rest of the defensive squad for the Warriors will be a group of Tulsa players who placed first in Conference USA and 15th nationally with 219.3 ypg on the ground, not to mention another 284.2 ypg through the air which ranked the Hurricane third in the league and 16th in the country. Quarterback G.J. Kinne didn't have the overwhelming-type numbers that Moniz put up during the regular season, but you can be sure Tulsa is more than pleased with his production. Kinne, who actually led the team in rushing with 557 yards and scored seven times on the ground, converted 60.1 percent of his pass attempts for 275.6 ypg and a total of 28 TDs.

Damaris Johnson collected 53 passes for a team-leading 771 yards, although he hit the end zone just three times on all of those receptions. Nevertheless, when Johnson does get his hands on the ball generally good things happen which is why he was named Second Team All-American by the AP which sees him as one of the most exciting all-purpose performers in the country. For the second year in a row, Johnson led the nation in all-purpose yards, this time around with a staggering 191.8 ypg. Standing at just 5-8, Johnson zipped through opposing defenses as he registered 39 plays of 20 yards or more.

But here is where things get tricky for the Golden Hurricane; they own one of the worst pass defenses in the nation with a staggering 305.7 ypg allowed. Granted, some of that has to do with the fact that Tulsa permitted an incredible 574 yards and eight touchdowns through the air versus Oklahoma State in the third game of the season, but still the squad's lackluster efforts have to be of concern for head coach Todd Graham even though he wasn't completely down on his team after that lopsided outing.

"They whipped our tails and dominated the football game," coach Graham noted after the OSU debacle. "I was proud of our guys on how they responded. They never quit; never gave up. I was very pleased with how they responded in the second half and the fight that was in them. Things like that happen. You don't ever want to experience that, and that's what I told them, 'You're true character is exposed. You showed good character.'"

• PREGAME NOTES
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While it’s true that Hawaii QB Bryant Moniz leads the nation in total offense (358 YPG), the Golden Hurricane will arrive with a much more balanced ‘doubledeuce’ attack as both the running and passing games account for more than 200 YPG. Our database thinks deuces will be wild tonight in Honolulu as WAC bowlers are just 1-6 ATS as double-digit favorites while Conference USA bowlers are 6-3 SU and 8-1 ATS versus WAC opposition since 2000 and 7-1 ATS as dogs of seven or more points overall. This night before Christmas also finds Tulsa in one of their more profitable roles as the Golden Hurricane are a perfect 6-0 ATS as dogs versus .500 or greater WAC opposition while our NCAA Coaches League points out the Todd Graham is a solid 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS with rest, including 6-1 SU and ATS off a SU win.

*STAN'S FORECASTER - Hawaii by 6; O/U 70
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Hawaii -6.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Hawaii -5.74
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--HAWAII is 7-21 ATS (-15.9 Units) against teams who force 2.5 or more turnovers/game on the season since 1992.
The average score was HAWAII 24.7, OPPONENT 31.0 - (Rating = 3*)

--TULSA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. this season.
The average score was TULSA 46.0, OPPONENT 26.7 - (Rating = 3*)

--TULSA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after the first month of the season this season.
The average score was TULSA 40.6, OPPONENT 26.1 - (Rating = 3*)

• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--HAWAII is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HAWAII 27.9, OPPONENT 18.7 - (Rating = 3*)

--HAWAII is 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was HAWAII 25.8, OPPONENT 19.9 - (Rating = 3*)

--TULSA is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TULSA 27.1, OPPONENT 21.6 - (Rating = 3*)

--TULSA is 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) after scoring 37 points or more last game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TULSA 27.0, OPPONENT 23.2 - (Rating = 3*)

• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--HAWAII is 12-1 against the 1rst half line (+10.9 Units) versus the first half line in all games this season.
The average score was HAWAII 21.9, OPPONENT 8.7 - (Rating = 5*)

--HAWAII is 9-1 against the 1rst half line (+7.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread this season.
The average score was HAWAII 19.3, OPPONENT 7.2 - (Rating = 3*)

--HAWAII is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game this season.
The average score was HAWAII 23.1, OPPONENT 6.3 - (Rating = 3*)

--HAWAII is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) versus the 1rst half line in home games this season.
The average score was HAWAII 27.9, OPPONENT 8.3 - (Rating = 3*)

--TULSA is 21-41 against the 1rst half line (-24.1 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse since 1992.
The average score was TULSA 15.4, OPPONENT 16.1 - (Rating = 4*)

--TULSA is 0-8 against the 1rst half line (-8.8 Units) in road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992.
The average score was TULSA 17.4, OPPONENT 25.1 - (Rating = 3*)

• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--TULSA is 26-9 OVER (+15.9 Units) the 1rst half total after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was TULSA 17.3, OPPONENT 16.8 - (Rating = 3*)

--TULSA is 12-2 OVER (+9.8 Units) the 1rst half total after playing 2 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TULSA 21.6, OPPONENT 20.1 - (Rating = 3*)

--TULSA is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) the 1rst half total in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TULSA 20.7, OPPONENT 16.4 - (Rating = 3*)

--TULSA is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) the 1rst half total after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TULSA 22.3, OPPONENT 15.6 - (Rating = 3*)

• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY OVER - Any team vs the 1rst half total (TULSA) - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (>=4.8 YPR) after 7+ games, in non-conference games.
(36-10 since 1992.) (78.3%, +25 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 28.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 15.9, Opponent 15.9 (Total first half points scored = 31.7)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-6).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-6).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (18-8).

--PLAY ON - A home team vs. the 1rst half line (HAWAII) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (>=34 PPG) after 7 or more games, after scoring 42 points or more last game.
(43-15 since 1992.) (74.1%, +26.5 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 2.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 20.1, Opponent 10.3 (Average first half point differential = +9.8)

The situation's record this season is: (6-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-6).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (29-9).

--PLAY UNDER - Any team against the total (TULSA) - in a bowl game, in a non-conference game between two teams from second tier division 1-A conferences.
(44-18 since 1992.) (71.0%, +24.2 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 56.3
The average score in these games was: Team 24, Opponent 24 (Total points scored = 48)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 36 (60% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (2-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-12).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (32-14).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (40-18).
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